Looking at the world’s 25 largest key emerging economies and emerging markets, ranked by GDP in PPP terms, the five fastest-growing include some usual suspects (China and India) but also some more surprising entrants – particularly Nigeria and Bangladesh. 2014 should see relatively strong growth for these five economies – albeit in some cases weaker growth than in recent years – but as ever, all face important challenges.
Nigeria in Second Place but with Serious Underlying Economic Concerns
Nigeria is, perhaps surprisingly, expected to be the second-fastest growing major emerging market this year. We expect the economy to expand by 6.6% in real terms in 2014. One of Nigeria’s chief advantages is its large current account surplus, which stood at US$11.8 billion or 4.0% of GDP in 2013.
Tighter monetary conditions and uncertainties over the flow-on effects of these on emerging markets may affect the Nigerian economy adversely this year however because Nigeria has received relatively large inflows of foreign capital. The economy also remains over-reliant on energy, and diversification is a priority – not least because of high unemployment. Conflict in the north is also a key concern.
Source: Euromonitor International from national statistics/Eurostat/OECD/UN/IMF
