A negative growth of -1.5 percent in GDP was recorded in 2016. In recognition of the deep weaknesses of the Nigeria’s economy and the potential for further weakening, the Federal Government has developed an Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) for the period 2017–2020.
The ERGP lays out the Government’s strategy for achieving the Government’s vision of sustained and inclusive growth. The Plan aims at economic recovery in the short-term, and structural reforms aimed at diversifying the economy to set it on a path toward sustained and inclusive growth over the medium to long-term.
The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan serves as an umbrella’ framework that incorporates 60 national development strategies. 12 of these strategies including infrastructure, industrial and power sector development have been identified as priorities.
The Federal Ministry of Budget and National Planning is coordinating the development of action plans containing the detailed activities, milestones, timelines and key performance indicators and targets for each of these strategies. A delivery unit will be set up in the Presidency to oversee implementation of the ERGP alongside the Ministry of Budget and National Planning.
Strategic Objectives of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan 2017 – 2020
The three broad strategic objectives of the ERGP are to
a. restore growth
b. invest in human capital
c. build a globally competitive economy
The 12 strategic priorities for executing the economic recovery and growth plan are grouped into five main categories
a. Stabilizing the macroeconomic environment
– align monetary, trade and fiscal policies
– accelerate non-oil revenue generation
– drastically cut costs
– privatize selected public enterprise/assets
b. Achieving agriculture and food security
– deliver on agricultural transformation
c. Ensuring energy sufficiency (power and petroleum products)
– urgently increase oil production
– expand power sector infrastructure
– boost local refining for self-sufficiency
d. Improving transportation infrastructure
– deliver targeted high priority transportation projects
– enable private sector financing of infrastructure
e. Driving industrialization, with a focus on small and medium-size enterprises
– improve the ease of doing business in Nigeria
– accelerate implementation of the National Industrial Revolution Plan.
The ERGP sets the ambitious target of 7 percent real GDP growth by 2020. This is initially driven by the oil sector and then increasingly by strong non -oil sector growth (agriculture, manufacturing, and services).
The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan is a reform strategy that seeks to be comprehensive in addressing the country’s challenges. The Plan contains a generally frank assessment of Nigeria’s economy, its vulnerabilities and the underlying structural weaknesses (dependency on oil for revenues and exports) and governance challenges, recognizing the role of ‘previous economic policies, deplorable infrastructure, corruption and mismanagement of public finances’.
In addition, it leverages, and is generally consistent with other plans and strategies, including the National Industrial Revolution Plan, the Nigeria Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan, the Medium-term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), the “7 Big Wins” in the Oil and Gas Sector Initiative and the Power Sector Recovery Plan that has recently just been approved by the Federal Executive Council (FEC).
Central to the sustainable economic recovery and growth, the Power Sector Recovery Plan is promising, with strategies to restore financial viability to the Nigerian Power Sector, improve transparency and service delivery. Furthermore, the Plan sends some positive signals on further policy adjustments to ensure much-needed macroeconomic recovery.
For full details about the ERGP, check the document made available by the Ministry of Budget & National Planning.